Think about the following question and identify your answer: in your opinion, the war in Iraq was most likely declared:

• To establish a democratic regime in Iraq
• To destroy stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction
• In response to the attacks of 11 September 2001
• To appropriate the country’s natural resources at a good price
• To create a counterweight to the Russian presence in the extended region
• To anticipate an attack on American interests in the region
• Other….

What is your answer?

If you and I know that things are often more complicated than what they seem to be, at first glance, it is likely that, like me, you have identified one reason that you give priority to, to the question asked above. Our brain, quick to simplify, will undoubtedly have led us astray on a path of exaggerated simplification. In many cases of decisions, the explanations are multi-factorial and the options are not limited to a « yes or no », a « go – no go » or an « option A or option B »:

Should we invest or not?

Should we separate from such a person or not?

Should I choose Polytechnique Paris or ENA?

…

This phenomenon of « tight framing » is sometimes manipulated by those around us who wish to push us into a binary reflection, compatible, unfortunately, with the fast and instinctive thinking called System 1.

This phenomenon of « tight framing » is in itself responsible for many excessive simplifications, which necessarily lead to incomplete or even erroneous decisions.

Rolph Dobelli writes in his book « the art of thinking clearly » that his friend Nassim Taled, essayist and trader, author of the famous book « the Black Swan », enrolled in swimming lessons, at the rate of 2 intensive sessions per week, with the aim of strengthening his body and losing weight. He had previously considered jogging, body-building or cycling, but personal considerations had led him to eliminate these « candidates ».

After a while, realizing that his objectives were not only not being met, but that the first signs of improvement were still not being seen, he had to conclude that he had made a mistake. After careful consideration, he was convinced that he had fallen victim to an illusion, that of the thin, muscular bodies of swimmers with broad shoulders. What if it was not the sport that was responsible for the sometimes sculptural silhouettes of these athletes but rather their starting morphology that lent itself well to this sport? He called this phenomenon « the illusion of the swimmer’s body ».

It is not complicated to identify a whole series of other situations where this illusion is applicable. In fact, a significant number of advertisements would not hold up if this shortcut to the mind did not exist.

As Rolph Dobelli concludes, is Harvard the best school in the world in terms of the elite it trains and what they become in working life, or is it because particularly talented and resourceful students choose Harvard that its reputation is what it is? Even if we are convinced that other factors are involved, we cannot reject the idea of even a partial application of the « swimmer’s body illusion ».

All this leads us to a better understanding of the danger of the so-called « fallacious » arguments that are widely used in too many debates. Among the reasons or even the « techniques » that make them « misleading », we find the illusion of causality. The illusion that there is indeed a link between a cause and an effect. It is in these cases that our critical thinking should take over, and as it is based on slow and energy-intensive thinking and the brain has a preference for « laziness »…

A French politician, whose name we will be kept silent, once said in a speech: « It starts with the liberalisation of cannabis use, and tomorrow, young people aged 10-12 will have sex on the streets…. While the second part of the sentence is likely to worry some parents and make others smile, it is nevertheless true that the link between the two elements is far from being a beginning of proof. It is based on this illusion of causality and takes advantage of the aura, presence, reputation of the person as well as his sympathy capital and the famous « halo effect », a true projection of the first impression of sympathy experienced towards someone, which encourages to attribute to this person qualities and skills without any verification.

Faced with these many very delicate situations where we must choose and decide, given the phenomena described in this article, what can we do?

• No knee-jerk reactions, give yourself time to think and take a step back, which avoids, on the one hand, starting the rapid speed of thoughts and, on the other hand, suffering less from the effects of immediate emotions and stress
• Agree to be challenged on our decisions by entrusting a person, if possible different each time (to avoid unnecessary messenger-message amalgams), with the active role of devil’s advocate, in order to challenge reasonings and decisions and to limit the effects of group thinking
• Discipline to increase the number of options we are considering, which helps us avoid tight framing

Any last ones for the road?

The more firefighters are present at the scene of a serious accident, the more extensive the damage is, or is it rather: the more damage there is at the scene of a serious accident, the more firefighters are present?